okansas.blogspot.com

okansas.blogspot.com
Occassional thoughts about orienteering

Friday, July 20, 2012

US WOC relay team prediction

My super-simple forecast for the US relay teams at tomorrow's WOC relays:

Men 27th
Women 19th

The forecast method is very simple. I looked at the results of the WOC relays since 2003 and gave a slightly higher weight to the last three years.

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posted by Michael | 7:30 PM

1 comments

Comments:

So the simple method for relay projection didn't work well at all. Or maybe it worked ok, but the sample size is just too small to make good projections. In any given WOC, the relay gives 2 data points while the individual races give 9. So, the SPROUT method for individual races used over 100 data points while the simple method for relays used something under 20.

Michael

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Anonymous : 3:08 PM

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