What are the chances that an orienteer finishes in the top 20 at a World Champs for the first time?  How often do we see people having their first top-20 WOC finish?

I can't say why, but I wondered about that last night.  I took a look at the results of the middle and long distance WOC races from 2011.  For each of the runners in the top 20, I checked their WOC hsitory (via WorldofO) and checked the year that they first finished in the top 20 in an individual WOC race other than a sprint.

For example, Annika Billstam was in the top 20 in both the middle and long in 2011.  She first made a top 20 in 2009.  Lizzie Ingham finished in the top 20 in both the middle and the long in 2011.  Ingham had never run a WOC before.

The graphic below shows the results.  The darkest purple shade is for people who finished in the top 20 in 2011 who had never before finished in the top 20.  The lighter the shade of purple, the longer ago the person first made a top 20.  The blue-ish shades are for people who first made a top 20 a long time ago.  That brightest blue shade at 14th place in the men's long in 2011 is for Velentin Novikov.  Novikov had his first top 20 WOC result in 1997.