Occassional thoughts about orienteering
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Some notes on qualifying for WOC finalsI took the "batting average" for the peer nations and made a spreadsheet model of a series of WOC qualifying races. As a reminder, the batting average is the chance that a runner from the peer nations will qualify for a final (I used the entire group rather than each individual nation for my spreadsheet). Overall, 8.5 percent of the opportunities to qualify result in qualifying for a final.
My spreadsheet showed a single WOC. At a single WOC there are 18 opportunities to qualify (3 men and 3 women in each discipline).
I ran my little model 1,000 times. 193 times, there were no qualifiers. 807 times there were between 1 and 6 qualifiers. In other words, in roughly 80 percent of the WOCs, a nation with a qualifying percent (i.e. batting average) of 8.5 percent will get at least one runner in a WOC final.
If you've read this far...I'm wondering why? I find this stuff interesting, but I can't imagine anyone else would...anyways, I think it raises some interesting questions for another day.
Panorama of the day
Here's an autostitch snapshot looking at the bridge over the Kaw in Lawrence.
Back to okansas.blogspot.com. posted by Michael | 6:56 PM
What would happen if the final field would be reduced to 30 Runners? Would it be to discouraging for the 'peer nations'?
as always I enjoy your interesting analysis.Post a Comment
WOC field to 45 was discouraging.
30 would be even more discouraging.