okansas.blogspot.com Occassional thoughts about orienteering
Monday, March 17, 2008
Safe leads
I looked at some of the splits from the 2006 WOC in Denmark to see at what point in the race the eventual winner was in first place (and held that position).
Long Final: Lakanen took the lead and held it from the 16th control (72 minutes into a 105 minute race) and Simone Niggli took the lead and held it from the 11th control (60 minutes into an 81 minute race).
Middle Final: Holger took the lead from the 17th control (30 minutes into a 36 minute race) and Simone took the lead at the 20th control (32 minutes into a 34 minute race).
Sprint Final: Wingstedt took the lead at the next to last control (less than a minute left in the race) and Hanny Alston took the lead at the 7th control (7 minutes into a 13 minute race).
I didn't take a careful look at the qualification races, but I did notice that Simone won her long qualifying heat on the run in (coming from one second back at the last control).
It'd be fun to spend some time looking a bit more carefully at this, figuring out how often someone loses a lead (some years ago I looked at something related - how the race winners are placed by the first control).
This was all inspired by the latest basketball - yes, basketball; not baseball - article by Bill James. James developed a formula for determining when a lead in a basketball game becomes "safe."
