Occassional thoughts about orienteering
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| okansas.blogspot.com Occassional thoughts about orienteering |
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Wednesday, July 04, 2007 More JWOC history...this time FinlandI spent some time looking at Finland's JWOC teams for 1999-2007. As in the past, I looked at a couple of specific questions:How many different people have run JWOCs for Finland 1999-2007? How many of those have also run a WOC for Finland? 34 different men and 30 different women have run JWOCs for Finland. Of those 64 runners, 9 have gone on to run WOCs for Finland. That's comparable to Norway for the same time period. Keeping in mind the small sample size, it is interesting that Norway and Finland have had more runners in the period of 1999-2007 to move from JWOC teams to WOC teams (Sweden has had 5 compared to 10 for Norway and 9 for Finland). Keeping in mind the small sample size, what I've seen is consistent with the idea that Sweden's selection philosophy might favor older, more experienced runners. Or maybe not. Maybe Swedish juniors haven't performed as well in the 4-6 years after making JWOC teams. Be wary of strong conclusions on such limited information! If you add Finland, Norway and Sweden together, 152 different runners have run JWOCs during the period of 1999-2007. What portion of those runners do you think have run just one JWOC? 10 percent? 90 percent? 50 percent? It turns out that about half of the people who ran JWOCs ran just one. Here is how the number of JWOC appearances break down: One appearance 84 runners Two appearances 42 runners Three appearances 18 runners Four appearances 8 runners Five appearances 0 runners As you might expect, people who run multiple JWOCs are more likely to run WOCs. As you might also expect, people who run JWOCs usually take about 4 years before they make a WOC team. Putting those two together gives you a way to predict which juniors in the last few years are likely to show up in senior WOCs in the next few years. I've put together a list of names. That list will wait for another day. Back to okansas.blogspot.com. posted by Michael | 12:02 PM 
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