okansas.blogspot.com Occassional thoughts about orienteering |
Tuesday, October 31, 2006 Some mathDoes 1 x 5 = 10 x 0.5?Is making one 5 minute boom the same as making 10 30 second booms? I was thinking about this in two contexts: (a) Which of those two alternatives "feels" better? Both have the same final impact (i.e. five minutes lost), but they might not have the same mental impact. (b) If you were looking at splits from two juniors, one who made a 5 minute boom and one who made 10 30 second booms, which would you think was likely to become a better orienteer? That's the sort of thing I think about when I'm sitting in a hotel room on a business trip. posted by Michael | 6:27 PM
Comments:
For me, making more smaller booms certainly, without a doubt, feels better. I guess, as a relative newbie, making 30-second booms on, say, 5-minute legs isn't that big of a deal. Because I'm orienteering well enough to get within 30 seconds of a control.
In last year's Seattle Winter League, I had a 10-minute boom on the first leg, and completely spiked everything else, and it still felt horrible. I'd bet that I had another Winter League meet with 10 minutes of smaller mistakes, and I just shrug those off. However, I think a junior who has the 5-minute boom is more likely to be the better orienteer. I think it would be easier to reduce one 5-minute mistake to, say, a 2-minute mistake than to eliminate 6 of the 30 second mistakes.
I think it depends the cause of the booms.
If the runner makes lots of 30s booms and the cause is always same. After this cause in orienteerer's behiviour follows always consequence with 30s boom. I think both have good oportunity to become good orienteerer but it means that both should find out what were the causes of booms.
30 sec errors in the circle are often just because you haven't looked at the detail in the circle enough, and are therefore really easy to fix. These small errors can also occur because its hard to map some detail exactly right, and it takes some extra time to interpret. A 5 min error means that you've totally lost the plot!
This is why. bet basketball For example imagine we want to compute the probability of an hamming distance of 2. I want the first bit to be not equal, that occurs with a probability of .5, the second bit to be not equal too, again .5, sportsbook the others to be equal, that is .5 each. This are independent events, so we need to multiply them together, basically for any given pattern of equal/not equal we want there is a probability of .5^160 for a specific arrangement of equal/not-equal of the bits.
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But. march madness with an hamming distance of 2 it is required that 2 bits are not equal and 158 are equal, in any kind of order. How many ways there are to arrange 160 items, two black and 158 white? 160!/(158!*2!), so I actually have to multiply the probability of a single arrangement for the number of possible arrangements. http://www.enterbet.com |
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