Occassional thoughts about orienteering
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| okansas.blogspot.com Occassional thoughts about orienteering |
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Wednesday, October 18, 2006 Forecasting success: part IIBernt O. Myrvold, from Norway, spent some time thinking about the question of forecasting success from the results of young orienteers. He put together a spreadsheet that shows the year top Norwegians won championships as young runners. For example, Hanne Staff was born in 1973 and won a championship in 1990 (she also won championships in 1991 and 1992).Bernt's spreadsheet is full of interesting data. As another example, here is a list of Norwegian orienteers who were born in 1974 who won various age group championships through 1994: Morten Skogsfjord Anders Storbraten (3 wins) Pal Johansen Tomas Edvardsen Truls A Veslum (2 wins) Erik Paulsrud Geir Solerod Olav Snildal Erik Paulsrud Morten Skogsfjord Odin Tellesboe Geir Solerod Viggo Molund Holger Hott Johansen Bernt was interested in relating success as a 14-16 year-old and seeing if it would predict success as a 17-20 year-old. He saw: Of the 80 runners that took a medal when they were 14-16 only 15 took a medal when they were 17-20. E.g. an awful lot of false positives. Of the 41 runners that took a medal when they were 17-20 only 15 had taken a medal when they were 14-16. E.g. an awful lot of false negatives as well. A fascinating question is: When they were both 20 and winning Norwegian Championships, would it be possible to look at Viggo Molund and Holger Hott Johansen and predict their future success? Both Viggo and Holger are very good orienteers, but their careers as seniors have been quite different. You can get a good sense of their O' careers by looking at their Norwegian Champs histories: check out Viggo Molund and Holger Hott Johansen. I could write more. This is a fascinating topic. But dinner is ready. posted by Michael | 7:18 PM 
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