Occassional thoughts about orienteering
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| okansas.blogspot.com Occassional thoughts about orienteering |
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Tuesday, December 14, 2004 baseball and weather and orienteering injuriesI wonder if I could predict orienteering injuries?Reading a couple of books got me thinking about predicting injuries. I just finished a book about a huge blizzard that hit the prairie in 1888, killing hundreds of people. The author describes the state of weather prediction at the time. I've also been reading a baseball book which includes an analysis of baseball injuries. The study, by a guy named Sig Mejdal, forecasts injuries for baseball players. So putting weather forecasting and baseball injury forecasting together got me to thinking about orienteering injuries. I'll start with an easy example -- what would you do to forecast injuries caused by a thorn in the foot. What is the chance of getting a thorn in the foot? It must be pretty straightforward. If you run in forests with thorns long enough, you'll step on a thorn. You can't do anything about it. Eventually it'll happen. Other injuries are a lot more complicated to forecast. Think about turning an ankle. If you train in the forest, you expose yourself to lots of opportunities to turn an ankle. But, if you train in the forest you also strengthen your ankles and develop a good forest-running-style, reducing the chance of turning an ankle. On balance, I suspect that training in the forest a lot pays off. The cost (the exposure risk) is low compared to the benefit. Age is worth thinking about. Does age explain injury risk? What type of injuries are common for 25 year olds? What about 40 year olds? Lots of stuff to think about, but dinner is ready, so I'll stop writing for today. posted by Michael | 7:16 PM 
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