okansas.blogspot.com

okansas.blogspot.com
Occassional thoughts about orienteering

Monday, July 14, 2003

Finishing is the first step to winning

Joseba Beloki crashed on today's TDF stage. He didn't finish. He won't win. You gotta finish to have a chance to win.

I was really sorry to see that Beloki crashed. He brings a lot to the race.

It got me thinking -- how hard will it be for Armstrong to finish five TDFs in a row?

I figure there are about nine riders this year who are legit contenders: Armstrong, Beloki, Botero, Leipheimer, Simoni, Hamilton, Mayo, Ullrich and Garzelli. You could argue that there are a couple more. So, let's just say there are ten legit contenders for the overall win in a normal year. Clearly, some of the teams have strong riders but no real overall contenders.

This year, three of those contenders are already hurt or out. Hamilton and Leipheimer crashed early on. Hamilton has hung in there, but I'd say he's seriously weakened his chances to win. Beloki crashed out today. The tour isn't even half over and about 30 percent of the legit contenders are gone. As far as I can tell, all three of the contenders who are out were victims of more-or-less random bad luck.

If the chances of a contender finishing are only 70 percent, the chance of finishing five in a row is just 17 percent.

I suspect this year is unusual in that so many contenders don't usually crash out. Suppose the chances of finishing are 85 percent. Then the chance of finishing five in a row is 44 percent. The odds of not even finishing five in a row are greater than the odds of finishing.

Maybe I'm way off. Maybe the chances of a contender finishing each year are more like 95 percent, and the chances of finishing five in a row are 77 percent. Actually, that seems a bit high.

How does this relate to orienteering? Well, it doesn't really. But, since I try to have something about O' everyday, I'll just say that it is clear that you've got to finish to have a chance to win. For a relay team, everyone on the team has to finish to have a chance to win.

posted by Michael | 7:42 PM

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