Occassional thoughts about orienteering
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| okansas.blogspot.com Occassional thoughts about orienteering |
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Sunday, July 14, 2002 More about the Junior WOCA recent discussion at Attackpoint about the results of the Junior WOC inspired me to look at some results.Before I write about the results, I want to write a few thoughts about how to characterize performance. In the discussion on Attackpoint, the U.S. results were described in very different ways -- "We are screwed"..."world class performance"..."mediocre performances." The way to characterize a performance is to understand the goal. What was the goal? Meeting the goal is good, failing is not. If the goal was to win medals or turn in top ten performances, the U.S. Juniors failed. Their performance was mediocre. On the other hand, the team might have exceeded more modest goals. I don't know if the U.S.O.F. has a goal for the Junior WOC. I don't know if the Junior Team has a goal for the JWOC. Without the goals, what can you do? Without goals you can still look at performance. I like to compare performances over time. In general, improvement is good. If the U.S. is getting better compared to the best, I'd say the performance is "good." If the U.S. is falling further behind the best, then things are not good. I decided to look at the U.S. relay team results in Junior WOCs. Relay results are a simple measure of the strength of the team. Relay teams at the JWOC take three runners. A good result in a relay takes three good runs. I poked around on the internet and was able to find results for five different JWOCs (I also found a few outdated links to JWOC results). I looked at results from 1996 and 1999-2002. As far as I can tell, the U.S. didn't have a men's relay team last year and didn't have a women's relay team in 1996. I looked at relay results by comparing the times of the U.S. teams to the winning team, the bronze medal team and the tenth place team. 2002 junior men's result looks good The U.S. junior men had the best relay performance in 2002 (compared to the other years I looked at). In 2002, the junior men's time was 122 percent of the winning team. In the other years I looked at, the junior men were 148, 195 and 146 percent of the winner. 2002 also is the first time the junior men were closer to the winners than the junior women were. 2002 junior women's result looks good, too The 2002 U.S. junior women had a time that was 126 percent of the winner. This is about the same as in 2000 and 2001, and much better than in 1999. I wouldn't feel comfortable characterizing the results any more than I already have without knowing what the U.S.O.F. and Junior Team goals were. But, I'd be surprised if either U.S.O.F. or the Junior Team actually had goals. A few final thoughts I'm not at all disappointed in the performance our the U.S. juniors. It'd be great to see performance goals for both the U.S. Team and the U.S. Junior Team. As far as I know, there aren't any. For the individual members of the JWOC team, I hope they are happy to be the best the U.S. has to offer, but not satisfied to be the best the U.S. has to offer. It isn't really a fair to compare a three leg relay to a four leg relay, but just for fun I compared the 2002 juniors to the 2001 seniors. The U.S. men's team at the 2001 WOC was 142 percent of the winners. The U.S. women in 2001 were 146 percent of the winners. posted by Michael | 6:00 PM 
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