Occassional thoughts about orienteering

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Looking ahead to the WOC relay


I've been thinking about SPROUT-like projections for the WOC relay races.  I haven't made any projections, but I did take a look at USA v Canada.  Canada doesn't have a women's team this year, but both USA and Canada have teams and have announced their runners.  There is always a friendly rivalry between the two nations at the WOC.  So it is fun to look ahead.

The graph below makes it pretty clear that the USA is the underdog.  The graphic shows world ranking points since 2010.  The first three runners (Boris, Eric and Giacomo) are this year's US team.  The graphic shows you the world ranking points for each of the runners for 2010-2012.  It includes results from this year's WOC.

While the US is the underdog, you can imagine a tight race.  Imagine the US runners perform above their medians and the Canadians perform below and you can see a tight race.

I'm not sure of the long term head-to-head results of USA v Canada, but in my younger days I had an even record in WOC relays against Canada.

Some details about the graphic...The horizontal lines indicate the median.  The boxes show the range from the 1st to 3rd quartile.  The width of the boxes indicates the number of ranking points included (e.g. Giacomo has a narrow box to indicate relatively few world ranking scores).  The height of the boxes indicates the range of points.  You can see that Eric and Robbie have relatively consistent scores (i.e. short boxes), while Giacomo and Will have greater ranges.  The single small circles show the more extreme outliers.

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posted by Michael | 8:31 PM


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